For reference, only the Jets averaged fewer than 5. And this Bills defense has made tremendous strides down the stretch. They will face a Colts offensive line that will be missing starting tackle Anthony Castonzo. Indy will likely turn to year-old Jared Veldheer, who was coaching high school football this fall.
I assume he will get a lot of help, which will restrict some of what the Colts can do offensively. Hilton, who has really come on down the stretch. That could be an issue in the cold weather, which has historically given him problems, albeit in a small sample size. The ex-Charger is in the playoffs when the temperature is under 40 degrees. Speaking of which, Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus could have some success containing this Bills offense.
Playing man coverage against Allen has been a death wish this year. Not only has he torched secondaries with deep balls against single coverage, he can also use his legs to torment opposing defenses. This season, Allen has 25 touchdowns to two interceptions against man coverage compared to 12 touchdowns to eight interceptions against zone.
Despite his monumental progress, Allen can still be forced into mistakes against disciplined zone defenses. Fortunately for the Colts, they play the second-most zone defense in the league. Indianapolis should get Khari Willis back at safety, which will help. I am interested to see how they utilize cornerback Xavier Rhodes and whether they decide to have him shadow his ex-teammate Diggs. Ultimately, this Bills defense matches up quite well with an overrated Indy offense without a starting tackle and likely relying on its run game to chew up the clock.
Meanwhile, the Colts defense at least runs a high frequency of the ideal scheme you want against this potent Buffalo aerial attack. Click on a pick type above to skip ahead to that analysis or read the full game preview. I do think Goff has a slightly better than chance to play, so my adjusted line is a tad below three after weighting for both scenarios. Since , when NFC divisional teams have met for the third time, the total is to the under per our Action Labs data.
In their two previous meetings, the Rams and Seahawks combined to score 68 points, and each matchup stayed under the total. Additionally, in their last eight games, the Seahawks are to the under while the Rams are on a four-game under streak and are to the under over their last 10 games. There are plenty of data points that support this under, especially given how stingy both defenses have been down the stretch, which I cover in further detail in my full game preview. And the Rams quarterbacks situation is significant, regardless whether Goff starts.
FanDuel still has this total listed at You know these teams know each other inside and out. They know every player, every tendency, every little wrinkle and advantage. Divisional rematches tend to be close because these teams know each other so well. They know exactly how to set up and defend. On top of that, these teams are both trending heavily toward defense over the latter part of the season, and not offense.
Weighted DVOA, well, weight recent games more heavily into the equation. Basically that means that the Rams have the best defense in football right now, led by Aaron Donald wreaking havoc up front and Jalen Ramsey shutting things down in the secondary.
Ramsey allowed only one catch to D. Metcalf in two games this season, and the Rams have allowed only 13 completed deep passes all season. Remember the worst pass defense in league history? What we have here are opponents who match up well and offset strength for strength.
That leans toward a cagey, defensive game with both teams running the ball a lot and a fast-moving clock. These teams played two weeks ago and it was at halftime. The Seahawks were up on the 49ers at the half a week ago, when the Rams were up at the half against the Cardinals — and only because of a late pick-six. The Rams were also trailing the Jets, , at the half three weeks ago.
This is basically a game under pick with the caveat that we could see a higher scoring fourth quarter once the coaches hold nothing back — and Russ beings to cook. I loved this at Sports Betting. Best Books. Pictured: Bucs. Action Network Staff. Download App. Happy Wild Card Weekend! Read now. The must-have app for NFL bettors.
Custom scoreboard for your NFL bets. Chiefs need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Raiders need to lose by less than 11 points or win. The Chiefs need to win by more than 10 points. Both teams need to score combined over 54 points. Both teams need to score combined under 55 points.
Cardinals need s to win by the end of the game or match. Jets need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Cardinals need to win by more than 6 points. ARI The Jets need to lose by less than 7 points or win. Both teams need to score combined over 47 points.
Both teams need to score combined under 48 points. Eagles need s to win by the end of the game or match. Steelers need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Eagles need to lose by less than 8 points or win. The Steelers need to win by more than 7 points. Both teams need to score combined over 43 points. Both teams need to score combined under 44 points.
Rams need s to win by the end of the game or match. Football Team need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Rams need to win by more than 7 points. The Football Team need to lose by less than 7 points or win. Bengals need s to win by the end of the game or match. Ravens need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Bengals need to lose by less than 12 points or win. The Ravens need to win by more than 11 points.
Both teams need to score combined over 49 points. Both teams need to score combined under 50 points. Jaguars need s to win by the end of the game or match. Texans need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Jaguars need to lose by less than 7 points or win. The Texans need to win by more than 6 points. Dolphins need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Dolphins need to lose by less than 9 points or win. The 49ers need to win by more than 8 points. Both teams need to score combined over 50 points.
Both teams need to score combined under 51 points. Colts need s to win by the end of the game or match. Browns need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Colts need to lose by less than 2 points or win. The Browns need to win by more than 1 points.
Both teams need to score combined over 48 points. Both teams need to score combined under 49 points. Giants need s to win by the end of the game or match. Cowboys need s to win by the end of the game or match.
The Giants need to lose by less than 8 points or win. The Cowboys need to win by more than 7 points. Vikings need s to win by the end of the game or match. Seahawks need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Vikings need to lose by less than 7 points or win.
The Seahawks need to win by more than 6 points. Chargers need s to win by the end of the game or match. Saints need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Chargers need to lose by less than 7 points or win. The Saints need to win by more than 7 points. Bills need s to win by the end of the game or match.
Titans need s to win by the end of the game or match. The Bills need to win by more than 3 points. The Titans need to lose by less than 3 points or win. Both teams need to score combined over 51 points. Both teams need to score combined under 52 points.
The Texans need to lose by less than 4 points or win. The Titans need to win by more than 4 points. The Bengals need to lose by less than 8 points or win. The Colts need to win by more than 7 points. Both teams need to score combined under 46 points. The Falcons need to lose by less than 4 points or win. The Vikings need to win by more than 3 points. The Football Team need to lose by less than 2 points or win. The Giants need to win by more than 1 points.
Both teams need to score combined over 42 points. Both teams need to score combined under 43 points. The Ravens need to win by more than 10 points. The Eagles need to lose by less than 10 points or win. Both teams need to score combined over 46 points. Both teams need to score combined under 47 points. The Browns need to lose by less than 3 points or win.
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There are no real restrictions on the number of games that can be combined. Usually, a parlay includes three or four results, with a potential 4x or 5x return on investment. Again, all of the bets have to be successful, so a 4-team parlay on the Steelers, Saints, Patriots, and Chiefs to cover would not pay out if the Saints come up even 1-point shy of their assigned point spread.
Teaser bets: A teaser is a way to tilt the field in your favor so that your parlay is more likely to cash. These wagers also link multiple games or results together, but the bettor gets to adjust the spread or point total in a more favorable direction, at the cost of lower odds.
For example, if the Steelers, Saints, Patriots, and Chiefs were all favored by 7. The return on investment would likely be closer to 2x or 3x the initial stake, rather than the lofty returns of a parlay. Live betting: With so many excellent online sportsbooks now available, live betting is becoming increasingly popular. Oddsmakers will constantly adjust the spread, moneyline, and total throughout a game based on results. This can provide a huge advantage for savvy fans who are watching the game and detect a reason, or have a strong predilection that one team will come back to win or cover.
If the Cowboys are 9. When a team has a huge performance at home one week, but hits the road for a cross country trip the next week, the public might assume they will continue to roll. Weather impact: Weather plays a huge impact in the NFL on a weekly basis and can be a critical factor to consider when placing any sort of bet.
Teams that play and practice in fair weather or in domes can have completely different results in cold weather. Windy and wet conditions can disrupt passing games and favor teams with more of a run-heavy approach. Inclement weather also plays a key role in the point total, usually leading to lower scoring affairs that end quicker due to more running plays. Of course, public perception tends to shift based on the weather and lines will adjust as well, creating another opportunity to fade the public and predict that some passing attacks will do just fine despite windy or wet conditions, and some fair-weather teams will snap their trend of struggling in colder climates.
Injury reports: When a high-profile skill player is injured, it rarely goes unnoticed. Reading the injury reports with analysis as to the importance of each player that is in danger of missing an NFL contest can be a key way to gain information prior to placing bets. That helped opponents hang with the Chiefs high-scoring offense, leading to more of their games going over the total, and more underdogs covering.
There are similarly impactful injuries to offensive lineman, linebackers, cornerbacks, and even special teams players to consider each week. Advanced statistics: Basic statistics, such as scrimmage yards and touchdowns, will tell you only a portion of the story from an NFL game. There are plenty of advanced statistics that tell a more complete story when it comes to the performance of teams and specific skill groups.
These metrics can be adjusted based on the strength of each opponent, so they become even more useful with each passing week. They can be incredibly useful when analyzing individual matchups between wide receivers and cornerbacks that are deficient in certain areas of the field. Essentially, they help you determine which players and teams have been somewhat lucky, and which are due for improved performance.
Situational betting: Expecting the same results from one week to the next week is not the best way to bet the NFL and win. Coaches are constantly making adjustments and teams can look completely different the following Sunday after getting exploited the week prior. There are twitter feuds, contract disputes, career milestones, and family events that can lead to spirited efforts from certain players. There are situational factors to consider on a team-wide scale when it comes to division games, jockeying for playoff position, or scheduling concerns.
Consider all aspects when betting on an NFL game, not just the statistics. Line shopping: With so many online sportsbooks thriving, bettors can shop around for the best price for each wager. Point spreads and totals are usually set with a market consensus, but Futures markets and player props can fluctuate widely at different books. Not only can you take advantage by getting better odds or a better number at a different book, you can use the numbers from one site to identify value on another site, and perhaps bet against a prop that you otherwise would have considered to be the correct number.
Bonus offers: Sportsbooks want your wagers and provide lucrative offers to generate more action. As a bettor, you can take advantage of these bonuses, especially the Odds Boosts that are offered for high-profile games and provide more value or change the nature of a point spread altogether. Check back frequently and wait for the right time to pull the trigger on a big bet once that boost is offered.
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